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Subject: [ISN] The future of security
From: InfoSec News <isn () c4i ! org>
Date: 2003-12-31 9:11:32
Message-ID: Pine.LNX.4.44.0312310311220.3831-100000 () idle ! curiosity ! org
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http://www.computerworld.com/securitytopics/security/story/0,10801,88646,00.html
By Scott Berinato
DECEMBER 30, 2003
CIO MAGAZINE
Scenario One
After the Storm, Reform
There's no need to imagine a worst-case scenario for Internet security
in the year 2010. The worst-case scenario is unfolding right now.
Based on conservative projections, we'll discover about 100,000 new
software vulnerabilities in 2010 alone, or one new bug every five
minutes of every hour of every day. The number of security incidents
worldwide will swell to about 400,000 a year, or 8,000 per workweek.
Windows will approach 100 million lines of code, and the average PC,
while it may cost $99, will contain nearly 200 million lines of code.
And within that code, 2 million bugs.
By 2010, we'll have added another half-a-billion users to the
Internet. A few of them will be bad guys, and they'll be able to pick
and choose which of those 2 million bugs they feel like exploiting.
In other words, today's sloppiness will become tomorrow's chaos.
The good news is that we probably won't get to that point. Most
experts are optimistic about the future security of the Internet and
software. Between now and 2010, they say, vulnerabilities will flatten
or decline, and so will security breaches. They believe software
applications will get simpler and smaller, or at least they won't
bloat the way they do now. And they think experience will provide a
better handle on keeping the growing number of bad guys out of our
collective business. Some even suggest that by 2010, a software Martin
Luther will appear to nail 95 Theses--perhaps in the form of a
class-action lawsuit--to a door in Redmond, kicking off a full-blown
security reformation.
The bad news is that this confidence, this notion of an industrywide
smartening up, is based on the assumption that there will be a
security incident of such mind-boggling scope and profoundly
disturbing consequence--the so-call digital Pearl Harbor--that
conducting business as usual will become inconceivable.
[...]
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