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List:       elecraft
Subject:    Re: [Elecraft] Sunspots!?!?
From:       Rich NE1EE <TheDustyKey () imaginarian ! org>
Date:       2020-11-28 15:09:17
Message-ID: 20201128151412.45CC3149AB1A () mail ! qsl ! net
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On 2020-11-26 20:30:-0700, Robert Cunnings wrote:
> <https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/topic/1775-new-research-suggests-solar-cycle-25-could-be-strongest-in-50-years/>
>  The article has a link to the paper, it's worth reading.Bob NW8L

I am partly through this paper. What may not be obvious at a glance are the \
statistics and math that underlie the analysis. I may as well be in for a penny, in \
for a pound. I had thought before reading this paper that there is a good reason to \
think that the sunspot activity will approach 250, +- a really big window. This is \
only slightly higher than McIntosh's 233. I think that I disagree with his model, but \
agree with his math and his conclusions. I encourage anyone who has an interest here \
to read the various papers. They will not be casual reading.

I have had many successes and failures over the years. One thing that seems to put me \
in a smaller class of physicists is that I don't mind being wrong. I am passionate \
and enthusiastic about my beliefs, and ready to change them immediately upon seeing \
proof that I am wrong. A while back I was pursuing a particular math approach to \
finding (mumble, mumble, space plasma physics), and one of the senior PhDs said that \
"some really f*** smart people" had developed another approach, and I'd better spend \
my time understanding what they did, rather than go off in a different direction. My \
math later replaced that alternate approach. You need not think that this implies \
that I am any brighter than any one here, but that it points to a closed mindedness \
that really surprises me in the scientific community. One of my friends is fond of \
saying that he thinks I am bright enough to have 2 brains...one the size of a BB, and \
other just a tiny thing ;-) I appreciate the humor. We can also be  found in public \
venues declaring to one another (wink, wink) that we are so smart that our IQs are \
not just in the 90s, they are in the /high/ 90s ;-)  I have seen many insights come \
from folks with the equivalent of HS diplomas, and don't place much stock on the \
"paper" I have filed somewhere. That's why it's not on my wall.

At any rate, we will all hold our breaths. Even if Cycle 25 is a banner cycle, my \
rotating-spinning-toroid sun model may not be correct. I can live with that ;-) And \
the cycles are good cycles-bad cycles, because what might be good for hams will \
certainly be cause for concern for those operating satellites and orbiting people \
containers. Now back to our regularly scheduled entertainment...

~R~
72/73 de Rich NE1EE
The Dusty Key
On the banks of the Piscataqua 

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