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List:       dailydave
Subject:    [Dailydave] Dave's CounterMeasure Talk
From:       "Gieseman, Daniel J [ITRNS]" <dgiesema () iastate ! edu>
Date:       2012-10-30 19:41:35
Message-ID: BFAC43E399150A4F8A95D211F85A6E314053841E () ITSDAG1D ! its ! iastate ! edu
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I enjoyed Dave's talk [1] and found the "trends in our industry discussion" keenly \
insightful.



This got me to speculating and extrapolating (and being overly philosophical,) given \
what appears are confluent market and geo-political forces driving two trends:



1. the trend of increasing demand by state actors for quality bugs.



2. the trend of discretion trumping disclosure when it comes to bug research.



What I find most interesting is the trend of increasing demand for 0days creating a \
large price disparity between vendor 0day bounties and the apparent willingness of \
governments to provide much higher compensations for 0day acquisitions [2]:



Basically, there is a large mismatch between vendor incentives to disclose \
vulnerabilities, and the prices being offered by governments.    It is this mismatch \
and its implications on vulnerability research which I find most intriguing.   Below \
I list a few more interesting questions which arise due to this observation.



Is this mismatch going to rapidly change the way hackers work with the tech industry \
(or rather, will not work with the tech industry), and even more so, will it alter \
where skilled hackers find markets for their capabilities?



Could this result in a giant sucking sound (to borrow from H. Ross Perot) as 0days \
are vacuumed up by state actors with deeper pockets than vendors (e.g. several orders \
deeper than a free mac, or $3133.70)?



Continuing along this line:  What are the implications of overt/covert government \
buying of 0days versus the present system, which had been stabilizing around an open \
market to match vendor bounties with vulnerability disclosure?



It would seem to skew the present market, but how much really?



Should it be a best practice/doctrine of governments that every 0day should be \
acquired, just in case?   Or, reworded... Could you picture a state actor purchasing \
an AngryBirds exploit as part of a cyber dominance doctrine?



Is a natural result of this trend a reduction, in terms of effectiveness, of \
commercial and open-source vulnerability scanning tools (which depend on a steady \
stream of fresh vulns for market share)?



Then, for the fun of it, I extrapolated our observed trends to a possible extreme:  \
Why not eliminate the middle man?  For example, is it realistic in any scenario that \
market forces and the threats/counter-threats of cyber-warfare lead governments to \
bypass independent vulnerability researchers and instead we see the software/controls \
industry work covertly with governments to intentionally design and embed difficult \
to detect (and trigger) vulnerabilities?



I think a new term is in order, to differentiate this concept from your classical \
trojan/backdoor; how about "MinusDay" (you heard it on dd first :-D)    I am not \
saying every product need have them, just products that are likely to be utilized by \
an adversary.



Restated: If exploit vectors really are that valuable, will corporations tend to \
become incentivized to "keep it in the family" and build them into critical systems \
themselves?   Given the observed trend of increasing value for 0day bugs, coupled \
with the fact that corporations are always seeking out new vertical markets which \
leverage existing specializations, does not this situation seems an entirely \
plausible?



Does this trend shred an underlying trust that might have been inherent in a global \
technology market place?   Are we seeing this trend already with Huawei, and Google \
out of china?



Remember the plane Boeing made for the Zemin that was full of listening equipment \
[3]?



Then I thought, are these concepts or trends, which I was thinking were novel \
observations, even new?



I am curious if others agree or disagree and would care to offer their predictions \
for our industry, in the spirit of fun discussion mainly.



Also, has anyone ever seen the owners manual for a 5ESS?



Cheers!

Dan



[1]. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBQET68HHSg

[2]. http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2012/03/23/shopping-for-zero-days-an-price-list-for-hackers-secret-software-exploits/




[3]. http://articles.cnn.com/2002-01-19/world/china.plane.bug_1_boeing-official-boeing-jet-plane?_s=PM:asiapcf



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<div style="direction: ltr;font-family: Century Gothic;color: #000000;font-size: \
10pt;"> <p>I enjoyed&nbsp;Dave's&nbsp;talk [1]&nbsp;and found the &quot;trends in our \
industry discussion&quot; keenly&nbsp;insightful.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>This got me&nbsp;to&nbsp;speculating and extrapolating (and being overly \
philosophical<a></a>,) given what appears are confluent market and geo-political \
forces driving two trends:</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>1. the trend of&nbsp;increasing demand by&nbsp;state actors&nbsp;for quality \
bugs.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>2. the trend of discretion&nbsp;trumping disclosure when it comes to bug \
research.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>What I find most interesting is&nbsp;the trend of increasing demand \
for&nbsp;0days<a></a> creating&nbsp;a large price disparity between \
vendor&nbsp;0day<a></a> bounties and the apparent&nbsp;willingness \
of&nbsp;governments to&nbsp;provide much higher compensations for&nbsp;0day<a></a> \
acquisitions  [2]:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Basically, there is a large mismatch between vendor incentives to disclose \
vulnerabilities, and the prices being offered by governments.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; It is \
this mismatch and its implications on vulnerability research&nbsp;which I find most \
intriguing.&nbsp;&nbsp; Below I list a  few more interesting questions&nbsp;which \
arise due to this observation.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Is this mismatch going to&nbsp;rapidly change&nbsp;the way hackers work with the \
tech&nbsp;industry (or rather,&nbsp;will not&nbsp;work with the tech industry), and \
even more so,&nbsp;will it alter&nbsp;where skilled&nbsp;hackers find markets for \
their capabilities?</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Could this&nbsp;result in a giant sucking sound (to&nbsp;borrow from&nbsp;H. \
Ross&nbsp;Perot)&nbsp;as&nbsp;0days<a></a> are vacuumed up by state actors with \
deeper pockets than vendors&nbsp;(e.g. several orders deeper than a free mac<a></a>, \
or $3133.70)?</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Continuing&nbsp;along this line:&nbsp;&nbsp;What are the implications of \
overt/covert government buying&nbsp;of&nbsp;0days<a></a>&nbsp;versus the present \
system, which had been&nbsp;stabilizing around&nbsp;an open market&nbsp;to match \
vendor&nbsp;bounties with vulnerability&nbsp;disclosure?&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>It would seem to skew the present market, but how much really?&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Should&nbsp;it be a best practice/doctrine of governments \
that&nbsp;every&nbsp;0day<a></a> should be acquired, just in \
case?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Or, reworded...&nbsp;Could you picture&nbsp;a state \
actor&nbsp;purchasing an&nbsp;AngryBirds<a></a> exploit as part of a cyber dominance \
doctrine?</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Is a natural result of this trend&nbsp;a reduction, in terms \
of&nbsp;effectiveness,&nbsp;of commercial and open-source vulnerability scanning \
tools&nbsp;(which depend on a steady stream of fresh&nbsp;vulns<a></a> for market \
share)?&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Then, for the&nbsp;fun of it,&nbsp;I extrapolated&nbsp;our observed&nbsp;trends to \
a possible extreme:&nbsp; Why not eliminate the middle man?&nbsp; For example, is \
it&nbsp;realistic<a></a> in&nbsp;any scenario that market forces and&nbsp;the \
threats/counter-threats<a></a>&nbsp;of cyber-warfare lead governments  to bypass \
independent vulnerability researchers&nbsp;and instead we see&nbsp;the \
software/controls industry work covertly with governments to intentionally design \
and&nbsp;embed difficult to detect (and trigger) vulnerabilities?&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> \
<p>&nbsp;</p> <p>I think a new term is in order, to differentiate this concept from \
your classical trojan<a></a>/backdoor; how about &quot;MinusDay<a></a>&quot; (you \
heard it on&nbsp;dd<a></a> first :-D)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;I am not&nbsp;saying \
every product need have them, just products&nbsp;that are likely to  be&nbsp;utilized \
by an adversary.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Restated: If&nbsp;exploit vectors&nbsp;really are \
that&nbsp;valuable,&nbsp;will&nbsp;corporations tend to become&nbsp;incentivized to \
&quot;keep&nbsp;it in the&nbsp;family&quot; and build them into critical systems \
themselves?&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Given the observed&nbsp;trend of increasing&nbsp;value \
for&nbsp;0day<a></a> bugs, coupled  with the&nbsp;fact that corporations are always \
seeking&nbsp;out new vertical markets which&nbsp;leverage existing \
specializations,&nbsp;does not&nbsp;this situation seems an entirely plausible?</p> \
<p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Does this trend&nbsp;shred an underlying trust that might have \
been&nbsp;inherent in a global technology&nbsp;market place?&nbsp;&nbsp; Are we \
seeing this trend already&nbsp;with&nbsp;Huawei<a></a>, and Google out \
of&nbsp;china?&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Remember the plane Boeing made for the&nbsp;Zemin<a></a> that was full of \
listening equipment [3]?</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Then I thought, are these concepts or trends, which&nbsp;I&nbsp;was \
thinking&nbsp;were novel observations,&nbsp;even new?</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I am curious if others agree or disagree and would care to offer their predictions \
for our industry, in the spirit of fun&nbsp;discussion mainly.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Also, has anyone ever seen the owners manual for a 5ESS<a></a>?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Cheers!<br>
</p>
<p>Dan</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>[1]. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBQET68HHSg" \
target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBQET68HHSg</a><br> </p>
<p>[2]. <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2012/03/23/shopping-for-zero-days-an-price-list-for-hackers-secret-software-exploits/" \
target="_blank"> http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2012/03/23/shopping-for-zero-days-an-price-list-for-hackers-secret-software-exploits/</a></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>[3]. <a href="http://articles.cnn.com/2002-01-19/world/china.plane.bug_1_boeing-official-boeing-jet-plane?_s=PM:asiapcf">
 http://articles.cnn.com/2002-01-19/world/china.plane.bug_1_boeing-official-boeing-jet-plane?_s=PM:asiapcf</a></p>
 <p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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