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List:       cypherpunks
Subject:    IP: Survivalists Gear Up for '2000 Bug'
From:       Robert Hettinga <rah () shipwright ! com>
Date:       1998-08-31 19:55:39
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Subject: IP: Survivalists Gear Up for '2000 Bug'
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Source:  Christian Science Monitor
http://www.csmonitor.com/todays_paper/reduced/today/us/us.1.html

National - Monday August 31, 1998

Survivalists Gear Up for '2000 Bug'

Brad Knickerbocker, Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

ASHLAND, ORE. -- Imagine a combination of Russia's economic crisis and
hurricane Bonnie. Banks closed and ATMs kaput. Power supplies and
telephones on the fritz - for days, or even weeks. Food and water hard to
come by.

It's a scenario some are predicting for 2000 - just 487 days hence - when
computers worldwide will try to adjust their internal clocks to the new
millennium.

Around the country, many people are beginning to prepare for the worst.
They are storing nonperishable food, water purifiers, and "off-the-grid"
energy supplies. They are starting new gardens, and some are converting
their assets into cash.

"If there is going to be a problem, none of us are going to be able to
prepare if we wait until the last minute," says Liza Christian, a writer in
Ashland, Ore., who is working with a local group dedicated to preparing for
whatever unknowns "Y2K" (Year 2000) may hold. "It's just common sense to
know how to do a few of these things."

Such groups have sprung up across the country. Many are purely grass roots,
meeting in homes, church basements, and community halls.

Others have a government stamp, including those in some 75 cities.

In Boulder, Colo., last week about 100 people attended the "Year 2000
Computer Problem Public Awareness and Preparedness Seminar." There, they
heard from Paloma O'Riley, an adviser to Colorado's state Y2K program.

"The year 2000 problem represents a potentially difficult and dangerous
time for all of us," says Mrs. O'Riley, who has both lived a
self-sufficient life in the wilderness of Alaska and worked as a computer
security specialist. "However, let's not lose sight of the fact that it's a
temporary bump in the road - not the end of the world. We will survive
this, if we all work together."

Some of the concern has been prompted by groups and philosophies at the
edges of conventional society, including antigovernment militias. At
"Preparedness Expos" around the US this summer, vendors are hawking
survival gear with the warning that the "millennium bug" could be a way for
Uncle Sam to stamp out personal freedoms and usher in the "new world order."

Boy Scout attitude

But it's not just perennial survivalists or inveterate Chicken Littles who
have been caught up in the push to prepare.

Many are like Karen Anderson of Colleyville, Texas, who's teaching her
daughters how to purify and store water. (Four drops of unscented chlorine
bleach in a two-liter soft drink bottle.)

"By being prepared for the unlikely event of a disaster, you increase the
chances of keeping yourself and your family safe," says Mrs. Anderson, who
owns a direct-marketing company and operates a Web site specializing in Y2K
home and family issues.

The problem stems from the fact that computer dates include just the last
two numbers of the year. Unless billions of lines of computer code are
checked, experts say, there could be major problems when "99" is replaced
by "00." And it's not just mainframe computers used by airlines, banks, and
the Social Security Administration or your personal desktop that may be
affected. So could computer chips "embedded" in things like automobile
systems and appliances.

Many skeptics doubt the "millennium bug" will cause modern society to shut
down. Businesses and government agencies have been scrambling to make their
computers "Y2K compliant." But there still is a lot to do and just 487 days
left to do it. In addition, computers in other parts of the world impact
Americans' daily lives as well.

"I would be the last one to tell you that we're not going to have some
nasty surprises, because I think we will," Deputy Defense Secretary John
Hamre told the Senate Armed Services Committee in June. So far, according
to the Office of Management and Budget, about 40 percent of the federal
government's 7,336 "mission critical" computer systems have been made Y2K
compliant.

Speaking at the National Academy of Sciences last month, President Clinton
said that despite the steps taken to address the problem, "there is still a
pressing need for action."

"It could affect electric power, phone service, air travel, major
governmental service," Mr. Clinton said.

"The Y2K problem has the potential to affect the lives of every single
American," says Rep. Barbara Eshoo (D) of California, co-author of a bill
that would make it easier for companies to share information about
potential computer problems. The Federal Reserve apparently thinks there
could be a problem too. Last week, the central bank announced that in 1999
there would be an extra $50 billion in currency in circulation to cover
anticipated withdrawals as the millennium approaches.

Speaking at the National Press Club earlier this month, Edward Yardeni,
chief economist and managing director for Deutsche Bank Securities, said
Y2K problems were likely to cause economic disruption akin to the oil
shortages of 1973 and '74. "I believe that a disruption in the flow of
information could be equally as disruptive," said Dr. Yardeni.

'Working together'

"It's not about fear or about freaking out," says Anton Abben, a builder in
Ashland, Ore. "It's really about our community pulling together, preparing
together for whatever comes along."

Ashland has had some experience in this regard. In 1996 (on New Year's Eve,
ironically) a flood knocked out the water and sewer system for more than a
week.

"I really feel that the flood was a dress rehearsal," says Ariel Morgan,
whose preparations include 150 pounds of grain, a water filter, food
dehydrator, and a "trash burner" stove. "We need to accommodate before the
fact."

     (c) Copyright 1997, 1998 The Christian Science Publishing Society.
-----------------------
NOTE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is
distributed without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior
interest in receiving this information for non-profit research and
educational purposes only. For more information go to:
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml
-----------------------




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-----------------
Robert A. Hettinga <mailto: rah@philodox.com>
Philodox Financial Technology Evangelism <http://www.philodox.com/>
44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA
"... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity,
[predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to
experience." -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'

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