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List:       computerguys-l
Subject:    Re: Demand of the War on Oil Production
From:       Mike Lowe <michel.d.lowe () VERIZON ! COM>
Date:       2005-08-22 16:17:21
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Arnold,
The burn rate on the war in Iraq is about $80B per year.  That was the
value of the most recent special appropriation for the war.  That equates
to about $6.667B per month.  Now I have no idea how that six and two-thirds
billion is split out in terms of troop pay, equipment, ammo, construction,
bribes to Iraqi officials, bomb detection, etc., but if only one percent of
the budget were spent on local fuel use, that would be $66.667M per month.
I hope that $99 out of every hundred is being spent on protecting our
troops, buying them the equipment they need, and otherwise keeping them as
safe as possible versus joy riding around Saddam's desert in M1 tanks, so
that's where I got my one-percent for fuel.  Optimism rather than realism
maybe....

Let's assume gas/diesel costs $1.00/gallon in Iraq (we'll pretend like
KBR/Halliburton doesn't extract its special tax), then the US forces are
burning 66.667 million gallons of fuel per month in Iraq.

Domestically, we're sucking down 20 million barrels (not gallons) of crude
oil per day which translates into about 9 million barrels of distillates
(gasoline and diesel).  The rest of it becomes plastics, fertilizer,
pharmaceuticals, asphalt, pesticide, and various waste products.  A barrel
is 55 gallons so this 9 million barrels translates to 275 million gallons
of gasoline and diesel per day, in a month, 8.25 billion gallons.

If you add my swag Iraqi fuel consumption to the domestic fuel bill, it
looks like we are burning about 8.9 billion gallons per month total, 66.667
million in Iraq and 8.25 billion gallons in the US.  If my one-percent
guess is accurate, Iraqi consumption is only adding about 0.75% to our
current gasoline appetite.  That's not to say we couldn't better spend the
$80B/year on other things like our failing schools, a new railroad system,
buying all the fissile materials loose on the black market, or trips to the
moon, but that's another off-topic discussion.  But the added demand for
fuel to support our troops in Iraq is adding less than a percent to our
current oil demand.

-Mike


michel.d.lowe@verizon.com


Greetings:
Has anyone calculated or contemplated the impact of the use of military
vehicles during the Iraq war on Oil demand?

Arnold in Bowie






-------------------------------------------------------------------

Arnold M. Kee

Director of Programs

The Institute for Higher Education Policy

1320 19th Street, NW | Suite 400

Washington, DC  20036

202-861-8223 x219 | 202-861-9307 fax

akee@ihep.org



-now we make history-
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